According to someone in the Muhammadu Buhari's camp, this is the deal:
Muhammadu Buhari is not ready to bribe anybody with Dollars to vote for
him, he is out to serve Nigerians and bring positive and very sincere
development to the country as a true giant of Africa.
Buhari was said to have told a close associate that, any Nigerian who
want Dollars should go to Jonathan but all Nigerians who want out
country to be better for everybody should vote for Buhari.
Now that the election is finally here, who will people vote for? See FULL details below...
Nigerians will file out to vote in the presidential elections that could
transform the political landscape for decades. In this final
installment of The Nation's comprehensive reports on the race, they
highlight the latest realities and project likely outcomes in the 36
states and the FCT:
Less than 60 million of Nigeria’s estimated 170 million population will
choose the nation’s next president. One week to the day the first
ballots would be cast, INEC put the total number of registered voters at
68,833,476. Out of this only 56,431,255 permanent voter cards (PVCs)
had been collected. This represents 82% of total cards and is a high
figure when compared with previous elections.
Before the February 7 postponement the momentum was clearly on the side
of the presidential candidate of the APC, General Muhammadu Buhari.
Founder of OPC and a loyalist of President Goodluck Jonathan has
confessed that Buhari's momentum was a key factor behind the six-week
shift pushed through by the Presidency.
The extension was supposed to enable Jonathan and the PDP regain the initiative. In
that period the president, governors and campaign team virtually
relocated to the South West – courting traditional rulers and others
with a shower of Dollars. The Gani Adams-led OPC took to Lagos
streets brandishing guns and vandalizing APC billboards. First Lady Dame
Patience Jonathan barnstormed throughout the country rallying women for
her husband.
Critically, the armed forces in collaboration with the multinational
force from Cameroon, Chad and Niger chased Boko Haram insurgents out of
most towns they had occupied in the North-East.
But not even the successful military campaign has altered the dynamics
of the race in the North and across the country. The fundamentals remain
largely the same for Jonathan and his challenger, Buhari.
The emerging electoral map shows a collapse of the voter base that swept
Jonathan to power in 2011. At the election, the incumbent took the
three Southern zones and North-Central. But in this 2015, Jonathan is
being restricted to the South-South, South-East and pockets of
North-Central.
Buhari on the other hand won in the North-West and North-East in 2011
but lost down South. This year his support base has dramatically
improved. In addition to retaining his grip across in the two zones he
took four years ago, this time around he’s projected to sweep
North-Central and South-West. This will give him four of the country’s
six geopolitical zones – a clear pathway to power.
A status report on the presidential contest from zone to zone and state to state follows:
NORTH-WEST
The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and
Kaduna. This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely
pro-Buhari. His personal popularity is reinforced by the regional
clamour for power-shift to the North. In 2011, the general running under
the relatively untested Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) swept the
zone. Now he’s running on a far stronger platform. Crucially, the zone
with the biggest vote haul in the country is Buhari’s home turf.
In 2011 Buhari garnered 6,453,437 votes as against Jonathan’s 3,395,724 votes in the North-West zone.
KEBBI
The tide is much more in favour of APC because many stalwarts or
match-winners of PDP have defected to the opposition. They include
leaders like ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu Magoro, Bala
Na’Allah, Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC governorship
candidate, Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry citizens of the
state now heckle Governor Saidu Dakingari at rallies. To win election,
most candidates of PDP for National Assembly and State House of Assembly
elections have refused to identify openly with Jonathan.
In 2011, Buhari running as the CPC’s candidate won 501,453 votes to
defeat Jonathan who polled 369,198 votes in the state. So far 1.4
million PVCs out of the state’s registered voter base of 1.5 million
have been distributed.
Verdict: APC wins.
SOKOTO
Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more ground in the state.
Known as “Alu Sai Alu”, Wamakko strongest points are ability to relate
freely with the poor at the grassroots; ability to deliver on his
promises; and a performance which has overshadowed the records of his
predecessors, especially ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. The internal
crisis in PDP has buoyed the governor and APC’s chances of coasting to
success. As at press time, thousands of supporters of Deputy Governor
Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work for APC rather than the party’s
governorship candidate, Ambassador Abdallah Wali.
Out of the 1,659,044 Permanent Voter cards (PVCs) received by the Sokoto
State INEC, 1,571,000 have so far been distributed. This might be
indicative of heightened voter interest this time around. In 2011 voter
turnout was a poor 40.1%. In that election Buhari prevailed over
Jonathan by 540,769 to 309,057 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
KADUNA
The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential campaign train to
the state indicated that the party is unpopular in the state. With some
empty seats at the stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari, President
Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential Campaign team were rattled.
Findings revealed that APC and Buhari are in control of the northern
part of Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always controlled
the Central Senatorial District too especially Birnin Gwari, Kaduna
North, Kaduna South and Igabi.
Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent of supporters
and loyalists of ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi defecting to APC.
The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna, the removal of the former GMD
of NNPC, and the sack of a former chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin
Luther Agwai (rtd) might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on
the state.
The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much and it will be
difficult for Jonathan to assuage it. To add to the burden of PDP, the
choice of the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, Arc. Barnabas Bala
Bantex has made the ruling party in the state to run helter-skelter.
Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and he is said to be a
rallying point for them
Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in directly
intervening in the party’s affairs in Kaduna State because it is the
domain of his deputy. The race appears headed towards victory for APC
unless Vice-President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party’s campaign
machinery.
In 2011, running on a very new platform, Buhari beat the PDP’s Jonathan
here with 1,334,244 to 1,190, 179 votes. As many as 3,145,037 out of
Kaduna’s 3,414,250 registered voters have picked up their PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
ZAMFARA
Ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz Yari, have
continued to enjoy more grassroots support in the state. They are having
an easy ride because the politics in the state has followed the same
pattern since 1999. The State Publicity Secretary of APC, Sani Ahmed
Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state. “Everybody knows
that since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, PDP has never
won an election to form government in Zamfara,” he said. The aloofness
of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, to the presidential
campaign has foreclosed any good outing for PDP.
PVC collection rate here is one of the highest in the country. Out of
1,495,717 registered voters, 1,435,452 PVCs have collected their cards –
amounting to a 95.97 per cent. In 2011, Buhari won the state with
624,515 to Jonathan’s 238,980 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
JIGAWA
In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against APC leaders, the
opposition will win the presidential poll in the state. One of the
reasons Lamido is begrudging Buhari is the fact that the latter controls
large following in Jigawa State. Even under ANPP and CPC platforms,
Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since
January, the governor’s comments have given advantage more to Buhari
than Jonathan. In January, Lamido told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)
that “I agreed like every other person that Buhari is an incorruptible,
honest, clean and patriotic Nigerian. My concern has always been
defectors who our party, PDP, had made ministers, governors, speakers
and members of the National Assembly and left us after benefiting so
much.” For the presidential race, Buhari is the man to beat in Jigawa.
But the governor will cling to any straw to retain the state for PDP in
other strands of election.
Out of 1,831,276 registered voters in the state, 1,757,658 had picked
their PVCs giving Jigawa one of the highest collection rates at 95.98
per cent. Four years ago Buhari took the state with 663,994 votes to
Jonathan’s 419,252.
Verdict: APC to win.
KATSINA
This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of Buhari. During
the week, many PDP members tucked their membership cards into big bags
and burnt them. The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP.
These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift, APC strong
leaders, those who defected from PDP to APC, and the loyalists of
ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua working for Buhari. Though the PDP is trying
to survive, the people of the state will vote for APC because they want
the presidency which they lost in 2010, due to the death of
ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua, to return to the state. The removal of the
Acting Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS),
Mallam Kabir Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a minus
for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to protest votes against
PDP in some parts of the state.
A total of 2,569,453 PVCs are now in the hands of eligible voters in
Katsina State out of 2,840,654 on the register. Four years ago Buhari
won his home state handsomely by 1,163,919 votes to Jonathan’s 428, 392
votes.
Verdict: APC to win.
KANO
This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP. For almost a
week, Vice President Namadi Sambo was in Kano to woo opinion leaders and
voters. He got more than he bargained for during an interactive session
with academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a low mark.
The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully managed its
succession plan which has given APC an advantage to consolidate. The
commissioning of some projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added
more pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The fresh
call by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for
the controversial $20billion oil funds might seal the fate of PDP in the
state. But the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau is trying
his best to salvage the PDP although he can only hope to secure the
required 25 per cent of the total votes cast for the President.
Kano has a huge registered voter base at 4,975,701. But of this number
only 3.4 million have picked up their PVCs. Buhari took an impressive
1,624,543 votes to defeat Jonathan who only managed 440,666 votes in the
state in 2011.
Verdict: APC to win.
NORTH-CENTRAL
With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state
governments in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and
Kogi. What on paper ordinarily would have been a PDP stronghold has ,
again, been neutralized by sentiments across the North favouring
power-shift to the region. This favours Buhari. However, the results may
ultimately be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious
politics that is never far from the surface in this zone.
NIGER
Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the opposition and
disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential campaign rally, Governor
Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. Even
the manner in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and
irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some electoral challenges.
PDP’s fortunes further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy
Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger
East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The
National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected
senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP. The refusal of the governor to
handover to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted APC’s
chances. Buhari is set to reenact his 2011 victory in the state. That
year he won the state convincingly by polling 652, 574 to Jonathan’s
321, 429 votes. Of the state’s 2, 014, 317 registered voters, 1, 682,
058 have collected PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
NASARAWA
The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary
of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have
upstaged the PDP and APGA in the state. Though the APGA governorship
candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up religious sentiments,
the outcome of the marathon campaign tours of APC has shown that
Al-Makura remains the candidate to beat. His selling point is what a
source described as his “humility.” If there was any hope left for Maku,
it was shattered by the Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization,
Dr. Ahmadu Ali, who described the former Minister as an ingrate. The
exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC.
Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party
has resigned to fate.
Four years ago PDP won the presidential contest here with 408, 997 votes
to Buhari’s 278, 390 votes. PVC collection here has been relatively
high. Out of 1242667 registered voters, 1, 048, 053 have picked up their
cards.
Verdict: APC to win.
KWARA