According to someone in the Muhammadu Buhari's camp, this is the deal:
Muhammadu Buhari is not ready to bribe anybody with Dollars to vote for
him, he is out to serve Nigerians and bring positive and very sincere
development to the country as a true giant of Africa.
Buhari was said to have told a close associate that, any Nigerian who want Dollars should go to Jonathan but all Nigerians who want out country to be better for everybody should vote for Buhari.
Now that the election is finally here, who will people vote for? See FULL details below...
Nigerians will file out to vote in the presidential elections that could transform the political landscape for decades. In this final installment of The Nation's comprehensive reports on the race, they highlight the latest realities and project likely outcomes in the 36 states and the FCT:
Less than 60 million of Nigeria’s estimated 170 million population will choose the nation’s next president. One week to the day the first ballots would be cast, INEC put the total number of registered voters at 68,833,476. Out of this only 56,431,255 permanent voter cards (PVCs) had been collected. This represents 82% of total cards and is a high figure when compared with previous elections.
Before the February 7 postponement the momentum was clearly on the side of the presidential candidate of the APC, General Muhammadu Buhari.
Buhari was said to have told a close associate that, any Nigerian who want Dollars should go to Jonathan but all Nigerians who want out country to be better for everybody should vote for Buhari.
Now that the election is finally here, who will people vote for? See FULL details below...
Nigerians will file out to vote in the presidential elections that could transform the political landscape for decades. In this final installment of The Nation's comprehensive reports on the race, they highlight the latest realities and project likely outcomes in the 36 states and the FCT:
Less than 60 million of Nigeria’s estimated 170 million population will choose the nation’s next president. One week to the day the first ballots would be cast, INEC put the total number of registered voters at 68,833,476. Out of this only 56,431,255 permanent voter cards (PVCs) had been collected. This represents 82% of total cards and is a high figure when compared with previous elections.
Before the February 7 postponement the momentum was clearly on the side of the presidential candidate of the APC, General Muhammadu Buhari.
Founder of OPC and a loyalist of President Goodluck Jonathan has
confessed that Buhari's momentum was a key factor behind the six-week
shift pushed through by the Presidency.
The extension was supposed to enable Jonathan and the PDP regain the initiative. In that period the president, governors and campaign team virtually relocated to the South West – courting traditional rulers and others with a shower of Dollars. The Gani Adams-led OPC took to Lagos streets brandishing guns and vandalizing APC billboards. First Lady Dame Patience Jonathan barnstormed throughout the country rallying women for her husband.
The extension was supposed to enable Jonathan and the PDP regain the initiative. In that period the president, governors and campaign team virtually relocated to the South West – courting traditional rulers and others with a shower of Dollars. The Gani Adams-led OPC took to Lagos streets brandishing guns and vandalizing APC billboards. First Lady Dame Patience Jonathan barnstormed throughout the country rallying women for her husband.
Critically, the armed forces in collaboration with the multinational
force from Cameroon, Chad and Niger chased Boko Haram insurgents out of
most towns they had occupied in the North-East.
But not even the successful military campaign has altered the dynamics of the race in the North and across the country. The fundamentals remain largely the same for Jonathan and his challenger, Buhari.
The emerging electoral map shows a collapse of the voter base that swept Jonathan to power in 2011. At the election, the incumbent took the three Southern zones and North-Central. But in this 2015, Jonathan is being restricted to the South-South, South-East and pockets of North-Central.
Buhari on the other hand won in the North-West and North-East in 2011 but lost down South. This year his support base has dramatically improved. In addition to retaining his grip across in the two zones he took four years ago, this time around he’s projected to sweep North-Central and South-West. This will give him four of the country’s six geopolitical zones – a clear pathway to power.
A status report on the presidential contest from zone to zone and state to state follows:
NORTH-WEST
The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-Buhari. His personal popularity is reinforced by the regional clamour for power-shift to the North. In 2011, the general running under the relatively untested Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) swept the zone. Now he’s running on a far stronger platform. Crucially, the zone with the biggest vote haul in the country is Buhari’s home turf.
In 2011 Buhari garnered 6,453,437 votes as against Jonathan’s 3,395,724 votes in the North-West zone.
KEBBI
The tide is much more in favour of APC because many stalwarts or match-winners of PDP have defected to the opposition. They include leaders like ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC governorship candidate, Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry citizens of the state now heckle Governor Saidu Dakingari at rallies. To win election, most candidates of PDP for National Assembly and State House of Assembly elections have refused to identify openly with Jonathan.
In 2011, Buhari running as the CPC’s candidate won 501,453 votes to defeat Jonathan who polled 369,198 votes in the state. So far 1.4 million PVCs out of the state’s registered voter base of 1.5 million have been distributed.
Verdict: APC wins.
SOKOTO
Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more ground in the state. Known as “Alu Sai Alu”, Wamakko strongest points are ability to relate freely with the poor at the grassroots; ability to deliver on his promises; and a performance which has overshadowed the records of his predecessors, especially ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. The internal crisis in PDP has buoyed the governor and APC’s chances of coasting to success. As at press time, thousands of supporters of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work for APC rather than the party’s governorship candidate, Ambassador Abdallah Wali.
Out of the 1,659,044 Permanent Voter cards (PVCs) received by the Sokoto State INEC, 1,571,000 have so far been distributed. This might be indicative of heightened voter interest this time around. In 2011 voter turnout was a poor 40.1%. In that election Buhari prevailed over Jonathan by 540,769 to 309,057 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
KADUNA
The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential campaign train to the state indicated that the party is unpopular in the state. With some empty seats at the stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari, President Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential Campaign team were rattled. Findings revealed that APC and Buhari are in control of the northern part of Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always controlled the Central Senatorial District too especially Birnin Gwari, Kaduna North, Kaduna South and Igabi.
Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent of supporters and loyalists of ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi defecting to APC.
The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna, the removal of the former GMD of NNPC, and the sack of a former chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai (rtd) might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on the state.
The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much and it will be difficult for Jonathan to assuage it. To add to the burden of PDP, the choice of the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex has made the ruling party in the state to run helter-skelter. Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and he is said to be a rallying point for them
Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in directly intervening in the party’s affairs in Kaduna State because it is the domain of his deputy. The race appears headed towards victory for APC unless Vice-President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party’s campaign machinery.
In 2011, running on a very new platform, Buhari beat the PDP’s Jonathan here with 1,334,244 to 1,190, 179 votes. As many as 3,145,037 out of Kaduna’s 3,414,250 registered voters have picked up their PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
ZAMFARA
Ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz Yari, have continued to enjoy more grassroots support in the state. They are having an easy ride because the politics in the state has followed the same pattern since 1999. The State Publicity Secretary of APC, Sani Ahmed Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state. “Everybody knows that since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, PDP has never won an election to form government in Zamfara,” he said. The aloofness of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, to the presidential campaign has foreclosed any good outing for PDP.
PVC collection rate here is one of the highest in the country. Out of 1,495,717 registered voters, 1,435,452 PVCs have collected their cards – amounting to a 95.97 per cent. In 2011, Buhari won the state with 624,515 to Jonathan’s 238,980 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
JIGAWA
In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against APC leaders, the opposition will win the presidential poll in the state. One of the reasons Lamido is begrudging Buhari is the fact that the latter controls large following in Jigawa State. Even under ANPP and CPC platforms, Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since January, the governor’s comments have given advantage more to Buhari than Jonathan. In January, Lamido told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that “I agreed like every other person that Buhari is an incorruptible, honest, clean and patriotic Nigerian. My concern has always been defectors who our party, PDP, had made ministers, governors, speakers and members of the National Assembly and left us after benefiting so much.” For the presidential race, Buhari is the man to beat in Jigawa. But the governor will cling to any straw to retain the state for PDP in other strands of election.
Out of 1,831,276 registered voters in the state, 1,757,658 had picked their PVCs giving Jigawa one of the highest collection rates at 95.98 per cent. Four years ago Buhari took the state with 663,994 votes to Jonathan’s 419,252.
Verdict: APC to win.
KATSINA
This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of Buhari. During the week, many PDP members tucked their membership cards into big bags and burnt them. The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP. These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift, APC strong leaders, those who defected from PDP to APC, and the loyalists of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua working for Buhari. Though the PDP is trying to survive, the people of the state will vote for APC because they want the presidency which they lost in 2010, due to the death of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua, to return to the state. The removal of the Acting Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Mallam Kabir Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a minus for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to protest votes against PDP in some parts of the state.
A total of 2,569,453 PVCs are now in the hands of eligible voters in Katsina State out of 2,840,654 on the register. Four years ago Buhari won his home state handsomely by 1,163,919 votes to Jonathan’s 428, 392 votes.
Verdict: APC to win.
KANO
This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP. For almost a week, Vice President Namadi Sambo was in Kano to woo opinion leaders and voters. He got more than he bargained for during an interactive session with academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a low mark.
The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully managed its succession plan which has given APC an advantage to consolidate. The commissioning of some projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added more pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The fresh call by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for the controversial $20billion oil funds might seal the fate of PDP in the state. But the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau is trying his best to salvage the PDP although he can only hope to secure the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast for the President.
Kano has a huge registered voter base at 4,975,701. But of this number only 3.4 million have picked up their PVCs. Buhari took an impressive 1,624,543 votes to defeat Jonathan who only managed 440,666 votes in the state in 2011.
Verdict: APC to win.
NORTH-CENTRAL
With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state governments in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi. What on paper ordinarily would have been a PDP stronghold has , again, been neutralized by sentiments across the North favouring power-shift to the region. This favours Buhari. However, the results may ultimately be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is never far from the surface in this zone.
NIGER
Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the opposition and disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential campaign rally, Governor Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. Even the manner in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some electoral challenges. PDP’s fortunes further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP. The refusal of the governor to handover to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted APC’s chances. Buhari is set to reenact his 2011 victory in the state. That year he won the state convincingly by polling 652, 574 to Jonathan’s 321, 429 votes. Of the state’s 2, 014, 317 registered voters, 1, 682, 058 have collected PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
NASARAWA
The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged the PDP and APGA in the state. Though the APGA governorship candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up religious sentiments, the outcome of the marathon campaign tours of APC has shown that Al-Makura remains the candidate to beat. His selling point is what a source described as his “humility.” If there was any hope left for Maku, it was shattered by the Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, who described the former Minister as an ingrate. The exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC. Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate.
Four years ago PDP won the presidential contest here with 408, 997 votes to Buhari’s 278, 390 votes. PVC collection here has been relatively high. Out of 1242667 registered voters, 1, 048, 053 have picked up their cards.
Verdict: APC to win.
KWARA
But not even the successful military campaign has altered the dynamics of the race in the North and across the country. The fundamentals remain largely the same for Jonathan and his challenger, Buhari.
The emerging electoral map shows a collapse of the voter base that swept Jonathan to power in 2011. At the election, the incumbent took the three Southern zones and North-Central. But in this 2015, Jonathan is being restricted to the South-South, South-East and pockets of North-Central.
Buhari on the other hand won in the North-West and North-East in 2011 but lost down South. This year his support base has dramatically improved. In addition to retaining his grip across in the two zones he took four years ago, this time around he’s projected to sweep North-Central and South-West. This will give him four of the country’s six geopolitical zones – a clear pathway to power.
A status report on the presidential contest from zone to zone and state to state follows:
NORTH-WEST
The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-Buhari. His personal popularity is reinforced by the regional clamour for power-shift to the North. In 2011, the general running under the relatively untested Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) swept the zone. Now he’s running on a far stronger platform. Crucially, the zone with the biggest vote haul in the country is Buhari’s home turf.
In 2011 Buhari garnered 6,453,437 votes as against Jonathan’s 3,395,724 votes in the North-West zone.
KEBBI
The tide is much more in favour of APC because many stalwarts or match-winners of PDP have defected to the opposition. They include leaders like ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC governorship candidate, Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry citizens of the state now heckle Governor Saidu Dakingari at rallies. To win election, most candidates of PDP for National Assembly and State House of Assembly elections have refused to identify openly with Jonathan.
In 2011, Buhari running as the CPC’s candidate won 501,453 votes to defeat Jonathan who polled 369,198 votes in the state. So far 1.4 million PVCs out of the state’s registered voter base of 1.5 million have been distributed.
Verdict: APC wins.
SOKOTO
Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more ground in the state. Known as “Alu Sai Alu”, Wamakko strongest points are ability to relate freely with the poor at the grassroots; ability to deliver on his promises; and a performance which has overshadowed the records of his predecessors, especially ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. The internal crisis in PDP has buoyed the governor and APC’s chances of coasting to success. As at press time, thousands of supporters of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work for APC rather than the party’s governorship candidate, Ambassador Abdallah Wali.
Out of the 1,659,044 Permanent Voter cards (PVCs) received by the Sokoto State INEC, 1,571,000 have so far been distributed. This might be indicative of heightened voter interest this time around. In 2011 voter turnout was a poor 40.1%. In that election Buhari prevailed over Jonathan by 540,769 to 309,057 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
KADUNA
The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential campaign train to the state indicated that the party is unpopular in the state. With some empty seats at the stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari, President Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential Campaign team were rattled. Findings revealed that APC and Buhari are in control of the northern part of Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always controlled the Central Senatorial District too especially Birnin Gwari, Kaduna North, Kaduna South and Igabi.
Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent of supporters and loyalists of ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi defecting to APC.
The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna, the removal of the former GMD of NNPC, and the sack of a former chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai (rtd) might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on the state.
The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much and it will be difficult for Jonathan to assuage it. To add to the burden of PDP, the choice of the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex has made the ruling party in the state to run helter-skelter. Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and he is said to be a rallying point for them
Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in directly intervening in the party’s affairs in Kaduna State because it is the domain of his deputy. The race appears headed towards victory for APC unless Vice-President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party’s campaign machinery.
In 2011, running on a very new platform, Buhari beat the PDP’s Jonathan here with 1,334,244 to 1,190, 179 votes. As many as 3,145,037 out of Kaduna’s 3,414,250 registered voters have picked up their PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
ZAMFARA
Ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz Yari, have continued to enjoy more grassroots support in the state. They are having an easy ride because the politics in the state has followed the same pattern since 1999. The State Publicity Secretary of APC, Sani Ahmed Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state. “Everybody knows that since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, PDP has never won an election to form government in Zamfara,” he said. The aloofness of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, to the presidential campaign has foreclosed any good outing for PDP.
PVC collection rate here is one of the highest in the country. Out of 1,495,717 registered voters, 1,435,452 PVCs have collected their cards – amounting to a 95.97 per cent. In 2011, Buhari won the state with 624,515 to Jonathan’s 238,980 votes.
Verdict: APC victory.
JIGAWA
In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against APC leaders, the opposition will win the presidential poll in the state. One of the reasons Lamido is begrudging Buhari is the fact that the latter controls large following in Jigawa State. Even under ANPP and CPC platforms, Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since January, the governor’s comments have given advantage more to Buhari than Jonathan. In January, Lamido told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that “I agreed like every other person that Buhari is an incorruptible, honest, clean and patriotic Nigerian. My concern has always been defectors who our party, PDP, had made ministers, governors, speakers and members of the National Assembly and left us after benefiting so much.” For the presidential race, Buhari is the man to beat in Jigawa. But the governor will cling to any straw to retain the state for PDP in other strands of election.
Out of 1,831,276 registered voters in the state, 1,757,658 had picked their PVCs giving Jigawa one of the highest collection rates at 95.98 per cent. Four years ago Buhari took the state with 663,994 votes to Jonathan’s 419,252.
Verdict: APC to win.
KATSINA
This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of Buhari. During the week, many PDP members tucked their membership cards into big bags and burnt them. The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP. These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift, APC strong leaders, those who defected from PDP to APC, and the loyalists of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua working for Buhari. Though the PDP is trying to survive, the people of the state will vote for APC because they want the presidency which they lost in 2010, due to the death of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua, to return to the state. The removal of the Acting Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Mallam Kabir Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a minus for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to protest votes against PDP in some parts of the state.
A total of 2,569,453 PVCs are now in the hands of eligible voters in Katsina State out of 2,840,654 on the register. Four years ago Buhari won his home state handsomely by 1,163,919 votes to Jonathan’s 428, 392 votes.
Verdict: APC to win.
KANO
This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP. For almost a week, Vice President Namadi Sambo was in Kano to woo opinion leaders and voters. He got more than he bargained for during an interactive session with academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a low mark.
The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully managed its succession plan which has given APC an advantage to consolidate. The commissioning of some projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added more pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The fresh call by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for the controversial $20billion oil funds might seal the fate of PDP in the state. But the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau is trying his best to salvage the PDP although he can only hope to secure the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast for the President.
Kano has a huge registered voter base at 4,975,701. But of this number only 3.4 million have picked up their PVCs. Buhari took an impressive 1,624,543 votes to defeat Jonathan who only managed 440,666 votes in the state in 2011.
Verdict: APC to win.
NORTH-CENTRAL
With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state governments in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi. What on paper ordinarily would have been a PDP stronghold has , again, been neutralized by sentiments across the North favouring power-shift to the region. This favours Buhari. However, the results may ultimately be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is never far from the surface in this zone.
NIGER
Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the opposition and disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential campaign rally, Governor Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. Even the manner in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some electoral challenges. PDP’s fortunes further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP. The refusal of the governor to handover to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted APC’s chances. Buhari is set to reenact his 2011 victory in the state. That year he won the state convincingly by polling 652, 574 to Jonathan’s 321, 429 votes. Of the state’s 2, 014, 317 registered voters, 1, 682, 058 have collected PVCs.
Verdict: APC to win.
NASARAWA
The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged the PDP and APGA in the state. Though the APGA governorship candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up religious sentiments, the outcome of the marathon campaign tours of APC has shown that Al-Makura remains the candidate to beat. His selling point is what a source described as his “humility.” If there was any hope left for Maku, it was shattered by the Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, who described the former Minister as an ingrate. The exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC. Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate.
Four years ago PDP won the presidential contest here with 408, 997 votes to Buhari’s 278, 390 votes. PVC collection here has been relatively high. Out of 1242667 registered voters, 1, 048, 053 have picked up their cards.
Verdict: APC to win.
KWARA





